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Analysis

As Netanyahu huffs and puffs, Israel on hold waiting for Sinwar, ICC

When faced with threat of ICC arrest warrants, Netanyahu told Biden that with an Israeli invasion of Rafah and an escalation in clashes with Hezbollah would ensue if the United States does not help block the warrants.
Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, attends the opening of a new mosque in Rafah, Feb. 24, 2017.

TEL AVIV — Israel is once again holding its breath in a nerve-racking wait for Hamas military commander Yahya Sinwar’s response to an Egyptian-brokered hostage deal proposal that the government has reluctantly approved. It is not alone. Egypt, Europe, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Hezbollah and quite a few others are also awaiting the decision of the man who launched the disastrous Gaza war on Oct. 7.

Hamas' leader in Gaza, Sinwar, has been underground, literally and figuratively, for almost seven months. Israel’s military has destroyed a significant part of his organization, and the ground above his head lies in ruins. Entire neighborhoods have been wiped out. Tens of thousands of Palestinians have lost their lives. None of this appears to affect him.

Sinwar is not only holding dozens of Israeli hostages, seized from Israeli military bases and communities on Oct. 7, but he is also holding the regional and global agendas captive. He dictates the pace, sets the tone. He has also restored the marginalized Palestinian issue to the top of the international agenda, undermined normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and driven a wedge between Israel and its top ally in Washington. 

The Israeli cabinet convened on Thursday evening in anticipation of an answer from Sinwar on what US and European leaders have described as a very generous proposal. Hamas continued to vacillate, once again setting the roller coaster of an on-again, off-again deal in motion. The cabinet dispersed; there was no point in discussing further decisions when everyone was waiting for Sinwar. 

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